NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring MW
Points 54.8 65.0
Total Points   119.8
Points From 2-Pointers 27.3 33.1
Points From 3-Pointers 15.8 18.5
Points From Free Throws 11.8 13.4
Shooting MW
Field Goals Made 18.9 22.7
Field Goals Attempted 53.0 51.6
Field Goal % 35.6% 44.1%
2 Pointers Made 13.6 16.6
2 Pointers Attempted 38.1 35.4
2 Point Shooting % 35.8% 46.8%
3 Pointers Made 5.3 6.2
3 Pointers Attempted 14.9 16.2
3 Point Shooting % 35.2% 38.2%
Free Throws Made 11.8 13.4
Free Throws Attempted 17.1 17.9
Free Throw % 68.9% 74.8%
Ball Control MW
Rebounds 38.3 29.6
Rebounds - Defensive 24.9 23.5
Rebounds - Offensive 13.4 6.1
Turnovers 16.7 12.8
Blocked Shots 4.4 3.4
Steals 6.7 8.5
Fouls 14.7 14.0

Playing Style Advantage:

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MW
Total Possessions 68.6
Effective Scoring Chances 65.4 61.9
% of Possessions with MW
2 Point Attempt 45.7% 46.4%
3 Point Attempt 17.9% 21.1%
Player Fouled 20.4% 21.4%
Turnover 24.3% 18.6%
Opponent Steal 12.4% 9.7%
Odds Per Shot Taken MW
Shot Blocked 6.8% 8.4%
Offensive Rebound 36.4% 19.7%