NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring TST GONZ
Points 67.9 86.5
Total Points   154.4
Points From 2-Pointers 36.3 53.8
Points From 3-Pointers 20.0 19.3
Points From Free Throws 11.5 13.4
Shooting TST GONZ
Field Goals Made 24.8 33.3
Field Goals Attempted 63.1 60.6
Field Goal % 39.3% 55.0%
2 Pointers Made 18.2 26.9
2 Pointers Attempted 43.0 43.0
2 Point Shooting % 42.2% 62.5%
3 Pointers Made 6.7 6.4
3 Pointers Attempted 20.1 17.6
3 Point Shooting % 33.1% 36.6%
Free Throws Made 11.5 13.4
Free Throws Attempted 15.2 18.2
Free Throw % 75.8% 73.6%
Ball Control TST GONZ
Rebounds 29.1 40.7
Rebounds - Defensive 18.4 29.2
Rebounds - Offensive 10.7 11.5
Turnovers 8.7 9.5
Blocked Shots 2.5 4.0
Steals 5.9 4.9
Fouls 14.4 13.0

Playing Style Advantage: Gonzaga

Expected Effect: +0.7 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats TST GONZ
Total Possessions 70.1
Effective Scoring Chances 72.1 72.1
% of Possessions with TST GONZ
2 Point Attempt 52.2% 52.1%
3 Point Attempt 24.4% 21.3%
Player Fouled 18.5% 20.6%
Turnover 12.4% 13.6%
Opponent Steal 7.0% 8.4%
Odds Per Shot Taken TST GONZ
Shot Blocked 6.6% 4.1%
Offensive Rebound 26.8% 38.5%