NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring TST CALBA
Points 71.8 66.9
Total Points   138.8
Points From 2-Pointers 45.2 33.3
Points From 3-Pointers 14.7 19.8
Points From Free Throws 11.9 13.8
Shooting TST CALBA
Field Goals Made 27.5 23.3
Field Goals Attempted 58.5 57.3
Field Goal % 47.0% 40.6%
2 Pointers Made 22.6 16.7
2 Pointers Attempted 44.5 36.8
2 Point Shooting % 50.9% 45.3%
3 Pointers Made 4.9 6.6
3 Pointers Attempted 14.0 20.5
3 Point Shooting % 34.9% 32.3%
Free Throws Made 11.9 13.8
Free Throws Attempted 15.7 19.8
Free Throw % 75.8% 69.6%
Ball Control TST CALBA
Rebounds 32.0 38.1
Rebounds - Defensive 24.3 25.3
Rebounds - Offensive 7.7 12.8
Turnovers 7.8 11.0
Blocked Shots 4.0 2.3
Steals 6.2 3.0
Fouls 15.1 13.9

Playing Style Advantage: Cal Baptist

Expected Effect: +0.4 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats TST CALBA
Total Possessions 68.0
Effective Scoring Chances 67.9 69.8
% of Possessions with TST CALBA
2 Point Attempt 58.1% 44.7%
3 Point Attempt 18.3% 24.8%
Player Fouled 20.4% 22.2%
Turnover 11.4% 16.2%
Opponent Steal 4.4% 9.2%
Odds Per Shot Taken TST CALBA
Shot Blocked 4.1% 7.0%
Offensive Rebound 23.2% 34.4%