NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring TST UTRGV
Points 82.6 66.3
Total Points   148.9
Points From 2-Pointers 50.5 36.4
Points From 3-Pointers 18.2 14.7
Points From Free Throws 13.9 15.2
Shooting TST UTRGV
Field Goals Made 31.3 23.1
Field Goals Attempted 62.1 56.2
Field Goal % 50.5% 41.0%
2 Pointers Made 25.3 18.2
2 Pointers Attempted 43.6 38.8
2 Point Shooting % 58.0% 46.8%
3 Pointers Made 6.1 4.9
3 Pointers Attempted 18.5 17.4
3 Point Shooting % 32.7% 28.1%
Free Throws Made 13.9 15.2
Free Throws Attempted 18.4 21.4
Free Throw % 75.8% 71.1%
Ball Control TST UTRGV
Rebounds 37.7 31.7
Rebounds - Defensive 27.4 23.0
Rebounds - Offensive 10.3 8.7
Turnovers 10.2 13.5
Blocked Shots 5.2 2.1
Steals 8.1 5.4
Fouls 15.9 14.6

Playing Style Advantage: Tarleton St

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats TST UTRGV
Total Possessions 73.6
Effective Scoring Chances 73.7 68.8
% of Possessions with TST UTRGV
2 Point Attempt 51.4% 46.0%
3 Point Attempt 21.8% 20.6%
Player Fouled 19.8% 21.6%
Turnover 13.8% 18.3%
Opponent Steal 7.3% 11.1%
Odds Per Shot Taken TST UTRGV
Shot Blocked 3.8% 8.5%
Offensive Rebound 30.9% 24.2%