NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring TST ACU
Points 59.2 63.9
Total Points   123.2
Points From 2-Pointers 31.1 35.1
Points From 3-Pointers 8.4 11.0
Points From Free Throws 19.8 17.9
Shooting TST ACU
Field Goals Made 18.3 21.2
Field Goals Attempted 40.3 47.2
Field Goal % 45.4% 44.9%
2 Pointers Made 15.5 17.5
2 Pointers Attempted 30.7 33.8
2 Point Shooting % 50.5% 51.9%
3 Pointers Made 2.8 3.7
3 Pointers Attempted 9.6 13.5
3 Point Shooting % 29.2% 27.2%
Free Throws Made 19.8 17.9
Free Throws Attempted 27.9 25.0
Free Throw % 71.0% 71.5%
Ball Control TST ACU
Rebounds 28.3 28.3
Rebounds - Defensive 20.8 19.1
Rebounds - Offensive 7.5 9.2
Turnovers 20.4 17.0
Blocked Shots 4.0 3.8
Steals 9.2 9.9
Fouls 17.2 21.3

Playing Style Advantage: Abl Christian

Expected Effect: +0.7 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats TST ACU
Total Possessions 70.9
Effective Scoring Chances 58.0 63.1
% of Possessions with TST ACU
2 Point Attempt 38.5% 41.4%
3 Point Attempt 12.0% 16.5%
Player Fouled 30.1% 24.3%
Turnover 28.8% 23.9%
Opponent Steal 14.0% 13.0%
Odds Per Shot Taken TST ACU
Shot Blocked 8.1% 10.1%
Offensive Rebound 28.3% 30.6%