NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring TST ACU
Points 70.0 69.1
Total Points   139.0
Points From 2-Pointers 37.2 32.0
Points From 3-Pointers 11.2 16.2
Points From Free Throws 21.6 20.9
Shooting TST ACU
Field Goals Made 22.3 21.4
Field Goals Attempted 44.2 46.7
Field Goal % 50.5% 45.7%
2 Pointers Made 18.6 16.0
2 Pointers Attempted 34.4 29.7
2 Point Shooting % 54.1% 53.8%
3 Pointers Made 3.7 5.4
3 Pointers Attempted 9.8 17.0
3 Point Shooting % 37.9% 31.7%
Free Throws Made 21.6 20.9
Free Throws Attempted 29.3 29.9
Free Throw % 73.7% 70.0%
Ball Control TST ACU
Rebounds 27.9 29.2
Rebounds - Defensive 21.1 19.7
Rebounds - Offensive 6.7 9.5
Turnovers 17.3 16.7
Blocked Shots 3.5 2.8
Steals 10.1 9.0
Fouls 19.9 21.8

Playing Style Advantage: Abl Christian

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats TST ACU
Total Possessions 72.9
Effective Scoring Chances 62.4 65.6
% of Possessions with TST ACU
2 Point Attempt 42.5% 35.5%
3 Point Attempt 12.2% 20.3%
Player Fouled 29.8% 27.3%
Turnover 23.7% 23.0%
Opponent Steal 12.4% 13.9%
Odds Per Shot Taken TST ACU
Shot Blocked 6.1% 8.0%
Offensive Rebound 25.5% 30.9%