NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring SUU CSUS
Points 72.5 70.0
Total Points   142.5
Points From 2-Pointers 40.1 40.2
Points From 3-Pointers 17.6 18.1
Points From Free Throws 14.8 11.7
Shooting SUU CSUS
Field Goals Made 25.9 26.1
Field Goals Attempted 55.3 57.6
Field Goal % 46.8% 45.4%
2 Pointers Made 20.0 20.1
2 Pointers Attempted 35.7 39.1
2 Point Shooting % 56.2% 51.3%
3 Pointers Made 5.9 6.0
3 Pointers Attempted 19.6 18.5
3 Point Shooting % 29.9% 32.7%
Free Throws Made 14.8 11.7
Free Throws Attempted 20.7 16.3
Free Throw % 71.3% 71.7%
Ball Control SUU CSUS
Rebounds 29.5 37.2
Rebounds - Defensive 21.4 24.6
Rebounds - Offensive 8.1 12.5
Turnovers 9.2 12.8
Blocked Shots 3.1 2.7
Steals 6.4 4.9
Fouls 14.2 17.1

Playing Style Advantage: Sac State

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats SUU CSUS
Total Possessions 68.9
Effective Scoring Chances 67.8 68.6
% of Possessions with SUU CSUS
2 Point Attempt 45.7% 47.4%
3 Point Attempt 25.1% 22.3%
Player Fouled 24.7% 20.5%
Turnover 13.4% 18.5%
Opponent Steal 7.2% 9.3%
Odds Per Shot Taken SUU CSUS
Shot Blocked 4.8% 5.6%
Offensive Rebound 24.8% 36.9%