NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring MRSH ND
Points 64.3 71.5
Total Points   135.8
Points From 2-Pointers 32.2 31.2
Points From 3-Pointers 22.1 26.8
Points From Free Throws 10.0 13.5
Shooting MRSH ND
Field Goals Made 23.5 24.5
Field Goals Attempted 61.7 57.6
Field Goal % 38.0% 42.6%
2 Pointers Made 16.1 15.6
2 Pointers Attempted 36.6 33.8
2 Point Shooting % 44.1% 46.2%
3 Pointers Made 7.4 8.9
3 Pointers Attempted 25.1 23.7
3 Point Shooting % 29.3% 37.6%
Free Throws Made 10.0 13.5
Free Throws Attempted 13.9 18.3
Free Throw % 71.7% 73.7%
Ball Control MRSH ND
Rebounds 35.5 40.3
Rebounds - Defensive 25.5 30.4
Rebounds - Offensive 10.0 9.8
Turnovers 9.2 11.2
Blocked Shots 4.5 1.8
Steals 6.3 5.8
Fouls 13.8 11.9

Playing Style Advantage: Notre Dame

Expected Effect: +0.4 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MRSH ND
Total Possessions 69.9
Effective Scoring Chances 70.6 68.6
% of Possessions with MRSH ND
2 Point Attempt 45.4% 41.5%
3 Point Attempt 31.2% 29.1%
Player Fouled 17.0% 19.8%
Turnover 13.2% 16.0%
Opponent Steal 8.3% 9.0%
Odds Per Shot Taken MRSH ND
Shot Blocked 3.2% 7.3%
Offensive Rebound 24.7% 27.9%