NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring MRSH UNCW
Points 74.3 75.9
Total Points   150.2
Points From 2-Pointers 34.9 32.8
Points From 3-Pointers 28.4 23.6
Points From Free Throws 10.9 19.6
Shooting MRSH UNCW
Field Goals Made 26.9 24.3
Field Goals Attempted 60.5 59.7
Field Goal % 44.5% 40.6%
2 Pointers Made 17.5 16.4
2 Pointers Attempted 31.6 36.1
2 Point Shooting % 55.2% 45.4%
3 Pointers Made 9.5 7.9
3 Pointers Attempted 28.9 23.5
3 Point Shooting % 32.8% 33.4%
Free Throws Made 10.9 19.6
Free Throws Attempted 15.0 29.7
Free Throw % 72.8% 65.9%
Ball Control MRSH UNCW
Rebounds 33.6 43.4
Rebounds - Defensive 24.9 27.2
Rebounds - Offensive 8.7 16.2
Turnovers 8.8 8.4
Blocked Shots 4.0 2.0
Steals 4.3 4.9
Fouls 18.0 14.0

Playing Style Advantage: NC Wilmington

Expected Effect: +0.5 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MRSH UNCW
Total Possessions 70.0
Effective Scoring Chances 69.9 77.9
% of Possessions with MRSH UNCW
2 Point Attempt 39.8% 41.1%
3 Point Attempt 36.4% 26.8%
Player Fouled 20.0% 25.8%
Turnover 12.6% 11.9%
Opponent Steal 7.0% 6.1%
Odds Per Shot Taken MRSH UNCW
Shot Blocked 3.4% 6.7%
Offensive Rebound 24.2% 39.5%