NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring PAC UCD
Points 60.0 79.0
Total Points   139.1
Points From 2-Pointers 30.0 39.0
Points From 3-Pointers 15.1 21.8
Points From Free Throws 14.9 18.3
Shooting PAC UCD
Field Goals Made 20.1 26.7
Field Goals Attempted 49.7 54.2
Field Goal % 40.3% 49.4%
2 Pointers Made 15.0 19.5
2 Pointers Attempted 32.9 32.5
2 Point Shooting % 45.6% 60.0%
3 Pointers Made 5.0 7.3
3 Pointers Attempted 16.8 21.7
3 Point Shooting % 30.0% 33.4%
Free Throws Made 14.9 18.3
Free Throws Attempted 22.9 24.0
Free Throw % 65.1% 76.1%
Ball Control PAC UCD
Rebounds 27.0 37.9
Rebounds - Defensive 20.8 27.9
Rebounds - Offensive 6.2 10.0
Turnovers 13.2 10.9
Blocked Shots 1.9 3.7
Steals 5.7 7.2
Fouls 16.8 18.9

Playing Style Advantage: UC Davis

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats PAC UCD
Total Possessions 70.3
Effective Scoring Chances 63.3 69.4
% of Possessions with PAC UCD
2 Point Attempt 42.2% 40.1%
3 Point Attempt 21.5% 26.8%
Player Fouled 26.9% 23.9%
Turnover 18.8% 15.5%
Opponent Steal 10.3% 8.1%
Odds Per Shot Taken PAC UCD
Shot Blocked 6.9% 3.9%
Offensive Rebound 18.1% 32.4%