NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring TXSO SDSU
Points 58.2 78.1
Total Points   136.3
Points From 2-Pointers 26.0 36.5
Points From 3-Pointers 19.8 21.2
Points From Free Throws 12.4 20.4
Shooting TXSO SDSU
Field Goals Made 19.6 25.3
Field Goals Attempted 58.3 55.8
Field Goal % 33.6% 45.4%
2 Pointers Made 13.0 18.2
2 Pointers Attempted 34.6 32.4
2 Point Shooting % 37.5% 56.3%
3 Pointers Made 6.6 7.1
3 Pointers Attempted 23.6 23.4
3 Point Shooting % 27.9% 30.2%
Free Throws Made 12.4 20.4
Free Throws Attempted 16.9 27.7
Free Throw % 73.6% 73.7%
Ball Control TXSO SDSU
Rebounds 32.0 43.3
Rebounds - Defensive 21.9 30.5
Rebounds - Offensive 10.1 12.8
Turnovers 11.9 9.9
Blocked Shots 2.4 4.3
Steals 5.6 6.7
Fouls 18.7 14.2

Playing Style Advantage: San Diego St

Expected Effect: +0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats TXSO SDSU
Total Possessions 70.3
Effective Scoring Chances 68.6 73.2
% of Possessions with TXSO SDSU
2 Point Attempt 42.2% 38.5%
3 Point Attempt 28.7% 27.8%
Player Fouled 20.3% 26.6%
Turnover 16.9% 14.1%
Opponent Steal 9.6% 8.0%
Odds Per Shot Taken TXSO SDSU
Shot Blocked 7.9% 4.3%
Offensive Rebound 25.0% 37.0%