NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring LSU SLU
Points 85.0 75.1
Total Points   160.0
Points From 2-Pointers 39.1 33.9
Points From 3-Pointers 28.0 24.9
Points From Free Throws 17.9 16.3
Shooting LSU SLU
Field Goals Made 28.9 25.3
Field Goals Attempted 58.2 56.2
Field Goal % 49.6% 44.9%
2 Pointers Made 19.6 17.0
2 Pointers Attempted 34.6 33.0
2 Point Shooting % 56.6% 51.4%
3 Pointers Made 9.3 8.3
3 Pointers Attempted 23.6 23.2
3 Point Shooting % 39.5% 35.8%
Free Throws Made 17.9 16.3
Free Throws Attempted 24.4 21.7
Free Throw % 73.3% 75.1%
Ball Control LSU SLU
Rebounds 35.4 31.2
Rebounds - Defensive 25.5 23.1
Rebounds - Offensive 10.0 8.2
Turnovers 9.5 11.7
Blocked Shots 4.2 3.0
Steals 7.4 6.3
Fouls 15.3 15.8

Playing Style Advantage: Saint Louis

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats LSU SLU
Total Possessions 72.5
Effective Scoring Chances 73.0 69.0
% of Possessions with LSU SLU
2 Point Attempt 41.3% 40.0%
3 Point Attempt 28.2% 28.2%
Player Fouled 21.8% 21.1%
Turnover 13.1% 16.2%
Opponent Steal 8.7% 10.2%
Odds Per Shot Taken LSU SLU
Shot Blocked 5.4% 7.4%
Offensive Rebound 30.2% 24.3%