NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring MIZZ MSST
Points 67.4 76.9
Total Points   144.3
Points From 2-Pointers 34.3 35.9
Points From 3-Pointers 19.4 23.3
Points From Free Throws 13.7 17.8
Shooting MIZZ MSST
Field Goals Made 23.6 25.7
Field Goals Attempted 55.1 55.1
Field Goal % 42.8% 46.6%
2 Pointers Made 17.1 17.9
2 Pointers Attempted 31.4 32.5
2 Point Shooting % 54.6% 55.3%
3 Pointers Made 6.5 7.8
3 Pointers Attempted 23.8 22.7
3 Point Shooting % 27.2% 34.2%
Free Throws Made 13.7 17.8
Free Throws Attempted 17.4 27.1
Free Throw % 78.9% 65.5%
Ball Control MIZZ MSST
Rebounds 28.2 40.0
Rebounds - Defensive 20.2 25.5
Rebounds - Offensive 7.9 14.5
Turnovers 12.1 12.2
Blocked Shots 4.0 2.6
Steals 6.9 7.3
Fouls 17.9 15.3

Playing Style Advantage: Missouri

Expected Effect: +0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MIZZ MSST
Total Possessions 70.2
Effective Scoring Chances 66.0 72.5
% of Possessions with MIZZ MSST
2 Point Attempt 39.6% 37.6%
3 Point Attempt 30.0% 26.3%
Player Fouled 21.7% 25.5%
Turnover 17.3% 17.4%
Opponent Steal 10.4% 9.9%
Odds Per Shot Taken MIZZ MSST
Shot Blocked 4.8% 7.4%
Offensive Rebound 23.7% 41.7%