NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring MEM USF
Points 74.8 56.4
Total Points   131.1
Points From 2-Pointers 38.1 27.7
Points From 3-Pointers 24.4 15.1
Points From Free Throws 12.2 13.5
Shooting MEM USF
Field Goals Made 27.2 18.9
Field Goals Attempted 56.2 53.4
Field Goal % 48.4% 35.3%
2 Pointers Made 19.1 13.9
2 Pointers Attempted 34.9 34.9
2 Point Shooting % 54.6% 39.7%
3 Pointers Made 8.1 5.0
3 Pointers Attempted 21.2 18.6
3 Point Shooting % 38.3% 27.1%
Free Throws Made 12.2 13.5
Free Throws Attempted 19.8 21.5
Free Throw % 61.9% 63.0%
Ball Control MEM USF
Rebounds 39.3 32.6
Rebounds - Defensive 29.2 23.3
Rebounds - Offensive 10.1 9.3
Turnovers 12.9 14.7
Blocked Shots 5.8 2.6
Steals 8.2 4.8
Fouls 17.4 15.2

Playing Style Advantage: Memphis

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MEM USF
Total Possessions 71.7
Effective Scoring Chances 68.9 66.3
% of Possessions with MEM USF
2 Point Attempt 42.2% 41.8%
3 Point Attempt 25.6% 22.3%
Player Fouled 21.3% 24.3%
Turnover 17.9% 20.6%
Opponent Steal 6.7% 11.4%
Odds Per Shot Taken MEM USF
Shot Blocked 4.9% 10.5%
Offensive Rebound 30.2% 24.2%