NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring MEM USF
Points 76.5 77.3
Total Points   153.8
Points From 2-Pointers 37.1 29.2
Points From 3-Pointers 22.7 33.4
Points From Free Throws 16.7 14.7
Shooting MEM USF
Field Goals Made 26.1 25.7
Field Goals Attempted 59.2 60.0
Field Goal % 44.1% 42.9%
2 Pointers Made 18.5 14.6
2 Pointers Attempted 36.2 30.4
2 Point Shooting % 51.2% 48.1%
3 Pointers Made 7.6 11.1
3 Pointers Attempted 23.0 29.6
3 Point Shooting % 33.0% 37.5%
Free Throws Made 16.7 14.7
Free Throws Attempted 22.9 20.3
Free Throw % 72.7% 72.6%
Ball Control MEM USF
Rebounds 38.9 34.8
Rebounds - Defensive 26.6 24.2
Rebounds - Offensive 12.3 10.6
Turnovers 12.1 11.5
Blocked Shots 3.6 3.9
Steals 6.9 6.4
Fouls 16.4 16.1

Playing Style Advantage: S Florida

Expected Effect: +0.4 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MEM USF
Total Possessions 73.4
Effective Scoring Chances 73.6 72.5
% of Possessions with MEM USF
2 Point Attempt 41.5% 35.6%
3 Point Attempt 26.3% 34.7%
Player Fouled 21.9% 22.3%
Turnover 16.5% 15.6%
Opponent Steal 8.7% 9.4%
Odds Per Shot Taken MEM USF
Shot Blocked 6.6% 6.2%
Offensive Rebound 33.7% 28.5%