NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring TNST EKY
Points 69.2 76.0
Total Points   145.2
Points From 2-Pointers 33.8 38.3
Points From 3-Pointers 18.2 19.3
Points From Free Throws 17.1 18.3
Shooting TNST EKY
Field Goals Made 23.0 25.6
Field Goals Attempted 60.1 58.6
Field Goal % 38.3% 43.7%
2 Pointers Made 16.9 19.2
2 Pointers Attempted 42.3 40.3
2 Point Shooting % 40.0% 47.5%
3 Pointers Made 6.1 6.4
3 Pointers Attempted 17.7 18.3
3 Point Shooting % 34.2% 35.2%
Free Throws Made 17.1 18.3
Free Throws Attempted 22.5 26.4
Free Throw % 76.1% 69.3%
Ball Control TNST EKY
Rebounds 35.5 41.4
Rebounds - Defensive 24.5 28.2
Rebounds - Offensive 11.0 13.2
Turnovers 10.6 10.3
Blocked Shots 3.1 7.0
Steals 5.6 5.6
Fouls 17.1 15.3

Playing Style Advantage: E Kentucky

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats TNST EKY
Total Possessions 72.3
Effective Scoring Chances 72.7 75.2
% of Possessions with TNST EKY
2 Point Attempt 49.1% 46.5%
3 Point Attempt 20.6% 21.1%
Player Fouled 21.1% 23.7%
Turnover 14.7% 14.2%
Opponent Steal 7.8% 7.8%
Odds Per Shot Taken TNST EKY
Shot Blocked 12.1% 5.3%
Offensive Rebound 28.1% 34.9%