NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring MEM HOU
Points 61.5 83.5
Total Points   145.0
Points From 2-Pointers 24.5 39.2
Points From 3-Pointers 19.7 30.9
Points From Free Throws 17.3 13.5
Shooting MEM HOU
Field Goals Made 18.8 29.9
Field Goals Attempted 51.5 66.8
Field Goal % 36.5% 44.7%
2 Pointers Made 12.2 19.6
2 Pointers Attempted 29.8 38.7
2 Point Shooting % 41.1% 50.6%
3 Pointers Made 6.6 10.3
3 Pointers Attempted 21.7 28.1
3 Point Shooting % 30.2% 36.6%
Free Throws Made 17.3 13.5
Free Throws Attempted 23.8 18.9
Free Throw % 72.7% 71.1%
Ball Control MEM HOU
Rebounds 33.7 41.9
Rebounds - Defensive 22.7 24.7
Rebounds - Offensive 11.0 17.2
Turnovers 15.4 8.4
Blocked Shots 2.7 7.0
Steals 5.1 9.0
Fouls 14.1 16.8

Playing Style Advantage: Houston

Expected Effect: +1.0 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MEM HOU
Total Possessions 70.4
Effective Scoring Chances 65.9 79.2
% of Possessions with MEM HOU
2 Point Attempt 35.4% 43.6%
3 Point Attempt 25.8% 31.7%
Player Fouled 23.9% 20.0%
Turnover 21.9% 12.0%
Opponent Steal 12.7% 7.3%
Odds Per Shot Taken MEM HOU
Shot Blocked 10.6% 5.4%
Offensive Rebound 30.7% 43.1%