NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring AUB HOU
Points 66.2 69.1
Total Points   135.3
Points From 2-Pointers 27.7 33.0
Points From 3-Pointers 20.0 17.8
Points From Free Throws 18.5 18.3
Shooting AUB HOU
Field Goals Made 20.5 22.4
Field Goals Attempted 51.2 62.0
Field Goal % 40.0% 36.1%
2 Pointers Made 13.8 16.5
2 Pointers Attempted 30.5 42.9
2 Point Shooting % 45.3% 38.4%
3 Pointers Made 6.7 5.9
3 Pointers Attempted 20.7 19.1
3 Point Shooting % 32.1% 31.0%
Free Throws Made 18.5 18.3
Free Throws Attempted 24.8 25.8
Free Throw % 74.8% 71.1%
Ball Control AUB HOU
Rebounds 37.4 40.1
Rebounds - Defensive 27.1 23.7
Rebounds - Offensive 10.3 16.4
Turnovers 13.0 7.8
Blocked Shots 4.2 4.5
Steals 4.5 8.6
Fouls 15.9 17.7

Playing Style Advantage: Auburn

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats AUB HOU
Total Possessions 69.2
Effective Scoring Chances 66.5 77.8
% of Possessions with AUB HOU
2 Point Attempt 37.6% 49.2%
3 Point Attempt 25.5% 21.9%
Player Fouled 25.5% 22.9%
Turnover 18.8% 11.3%
Opponent Steal 12.5% 6.5%
Odds Per Shot Taken AUB HOU
Shot Blocked 7.3% 8.4%
Offensive Rebound 30.2% 37.7%