NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring MIZZ ALA
Points 76.0 92.7
Total Points   168.7
Points From 2-Pointers 38.0 33.3
Points From 3-Pointers 19.6 37.2
Points From Free Throws 18.4 22.3
Shooting MIZZ ALA
Field Goals Made 25.5 29.0
Field Goals Attempted 59.7 60.7
Field Goal % 42.8% 47.8%
2 Pointers Made 19.0 16.6
2 Pointers Attempted 37.1 29.2
2 Point Shooting % 51.3% 57.1%
3 Pointers Made 6.5 12.4
3 Pointers Attempted 22.7 31.5
3 Point Shooting % 28.8% 39.3%
Free Throws Made 18.4 22.3
Free Throws Attempted 23.3 29.2
Free Throw % 78.9% 76.4%
Ball Control MIZZ ALA
Rebounds 29.5 42.5
Rebounds - Defensive 20.4 27.6
Rebounds - Offensive 9.1 14.9
Turnovers 10.5 11.2
Blocked Shots 4.8 3.9
Steals 7.3 6.0
Fouls 20.1 17.8

Playing Style Advantage: Missouri

Expected Effect: +0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MIZZ ALA
Total Possessions 75.0
Effective Scoring Chances 73.5 78.6
% of Possessions with MIZZ ALA
2 Point Attempt 43.3% 31.8%
3 Point Attempt 26.5% 34.3%
Player Fouled 23.7% 26.7%
Turnover 14.1% 15.0%
Opponent Steal 8.0% 9.8%
Odds Per Shot Taken MIZZ ALA
Shot Blocked 6.6% 8.2%
Offensive Rebound 24.7% 42.2%