NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring AUB ALA
Points 86.3 80.8
Total Points   167.1
Points From 2-Pointers 43.3 32.6
Points From 3-Pointers 21.6 25.6
Points From Free Throws 21.4 22.6
Shooting AUB ALA
Field Goals Made 28.9 24.8
Field Goals Attempted 61.3 62.5
Field Goal % 47.1% 39.8%
2 Pointers Made 21.7 16.3
2 Pointers Attempted 39.4 37.0
2 Point Shooting % 55.1% 44.1%
3 Pointers Made 7.2 8.5
3 Pointers Attempted 21.9 25.5
3 Point Shooting % 32.9% 33.4%
Free Throws Made 21.4 22.6
Free Throws Attempted 28.5 29.6
Free Throw % 74.8% 76.4%
Ball Control AUB ALA
Rebounds 37.6 39.7
Rebounds - Defensive 26.5 25.3
Rebounds - Offensive 11.1 14.4
Turnovers 9.6 11.2
Blocked Shots 6.6 3.8
Steals 7.2 6.1
Fouls 19.4 18.9

Playing Style Advantage: Alabama

Expected Effect: +0.5 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats AUB ALA
Total Possessions 76.8
Effective Scoring Chances 78.3 80.0
% of Possessions with AUB ALA
2 Point Attempt 44.1% 39.4%
3 Point Attempt 24.5% 27.2%
Player Fouled 24.7% 25.3%
Turnover 12.4% 14.6%
Opponent Steal 7.9% 9.3%
Odds Per Shot Taken AUB ALA
Shot Blocked 6.2% 10.9%
Offensive Rebound 30.4% 35.2%