NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring MIZZ ISU
Points 61.9 77.3
Total Points   139.1
Points From 2-Pointers 27.7 36.7
Points From 3-Pointers 20.3 22.2
Points From Free Throws 13.9 18.3
Shooting MIZZ ISU
Field Goals Made 20.6 25.8
Field Goals Attempted 50.6 56.4
Field Goal % 40.7% 45.7%
2 Pointers Made 13.8 18.4
2 Pointers Attempted 26.7 36.6
2 Point Shooting % 51.8% 50.1%
3 Pointers Made 6.8 7.4
3 Pointers Attempted 23.9 19.8
3 Point Shooting % 28.3% 37.5%
Free Throws Made 13.9 18.3
Free Throws Attempted 17.7 25.8
Free Throw % 78.9% 70.8%
Ball Control MIZZ ISU
Rebounds 30.1 36.6
Rebounds - Defensive 21.8 23.7
Rebounds - Offensive 8.2 12.9
Turnovers 15.2 9.7
Blocked Shots 4.3 2.9
Steals 6.2 8.8
Fouls 18.4 15.3

Playing Style Advantage: Iowa St

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MIZZ ISU
Total Possessions 69.0
Effective Scoring Chances 62.0 72.1
% of Possessions with MIZZ ISU
2 Point Attempt 34.1% 43.8%
3 Point Attempt 30.5% 23.6%
Player Fouled 22.2% 26.7%
Turnover 22.0% 14.1%
Opponent Steal 12.8% 9.0%
Odds Per Shot Taken MIZZ ISU
Shot Blocked 5.2% 8.5%
Offensive Rebound 25.7% 37.1%