NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring TNST MORE
Points 62.6 74.4
Total Points   137.0
Points From 2-Pointers 32.4 33.3
Points From 3-Pointers 14.6 24.8
Points From Free Throws 15.5 16.3
Shooting TNST MORE
Field Goals Made 21.1 24.9
Field Goals Attempted 53.3 53.9
Field Goal % 39.5% 46.2%
2 Pointers Made 16.2 16.7
2 Pointers Attempted 36.7 30.3
2 Point Shooting % 44.1% 55.0%
3 Pointers Made 4.9 8.3
3 Pointers Attempted 16.6 23.6
3 Point Shooting % 29.4% 35.0%
Free Throws Made 15.5 16.3
Free Throws Attempted 20.4 22.2
Free Throw % 76.1% 73.2%
Ball Control TNST MORE
Rebounds 29.2 37.7
Rebounds - Defensive 21.2 26.6
Rebounds - Offensive 8.0 11.2
Turnovers 11.4 11.6
Blocked Shots 2.7 4.8
Steals 5.7 6.3
Fouls 16.4 15.8

Playing Style Advantage: TN State

Expected Effect: +0.4 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats TNST MORE
Total Possessions 68.6
Effective Scoring Chances 65.2 68.1
% of Possessions with TNST MORE
2 Point Attempt 46.8% 37.5%
3 Point Attempt 21.2% 29.2%
Player Fouled 23.0% 23.9%
Turnover 16.6% 16.9%
Opponent Steal 9.2% 8.3%
Odds Per Shot Taken TNST MORE
Shot Blocked 9.0% 5.2%
Offensive Rebound 23.1% 34.5%