NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring JKST ILL
Points 63.4 95.2
Total Points   158.6
Points From 2-Pointers 37.0 44.0
Points From 3-Pointers 15.1 31.1
Points From Free Throws 11.3 20.1
Shooting JKST ILL
Field Goals Made 23.6 32.4
Field Goals Attempted 65.8 60.0
Field Goal % 35.8% 54.0%
2 Pointers Made 18.5 22.0
2 Pointers Attempted 50.0 33.6
2 Point Shooting % 37.0% 65.4%
3 Pointers Made 5.0 10.4
3 Pointers Attempted 15.7 26.3
3 Point Shooting % 32.0% 39.4%
Free Throws Made 11.3 20.1
Free Throws Attempted 15.7 27.2
Free Throw % 71.9% 73.8%
Ball Control JKST ILL
Rebounds 29.6 46.3
Rebounds - Defensive 18.4 32.9
Rebounds - Offensive 11.2 13.4
Turnovers 8.8 8.9
Blocked Shots 2.6 4.5
Steals 5.2 4.4
Fouls 16.6 11.7

Playing Style Advantage: Illinois

Expected Effect: +0.5 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats JKST ILL
Total Possessions 72.4
Effective Scoring Chances 74.9 76.9
% of Possessions with JKST ILL
2 Point Attempt 58.6% 38.7%
3 Point Attempt 18.4% 30.3%
Player Fouled 16.2% 23.0%
Turnover 12.1% 12.3%
Opponent Steal 6.0% 7.2%
Odds Per Shot Taken JKST ILL
Shot Blocked 7.6% 4.1%
Offensive Rebound 25.4% 42.2%