NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring MIZZ LIB
Points 74.4 70.2
Total Points   144.6
Points From 2-Pointers 42.8 26.9
Points From 3-Pointers 18.0 31.3
Points From Free Throws 13.5 12.1
Shooting MIZZ LIB
Field Goals Made 27.4 23.9
Field Goals Attempted 54.7 55.6
Field Goal % 50.2% 42.9%
2 Pointers Made 21.4 13.4
2 Pointers Attempted 35.6 27.1
2 Point Shooting % 60.2% 49.6%
3 Pointers Made 6.0 10.4
3 Pointers Attempted 19.1 28.5
3 Point Shooting % 31.5% 36.6%
Free Throws Made 13.5 12.1
Free Throws Attempted 17.1 18.7
Free Throw % 78.9% 64.5%
Ball Control MIZZ LIB
Rebounds 33.0 31.3
Rebounds - Defensive 26.4 22.6
Rebounds - Offensive 6.6 8.6
Turnovers 10.0 10.9
Blocked Shots 5.3 1.8
Steals 6.1 4.4
Fouls 16.8 15.5

Playing Style Advantage: Missouri

Expected Effect: +0.6 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MIZZ LIB
Total Possessions 68.6
Effective Scoring Chances 65.2 66.3
% of Possessions with MIZZ LIB
2 Point Attempt 46.8% 34.1%
3 Point Attempt 25.2% 36.0%
Player Fouled 22.6% 24.5%
Turnover 14.6% 15.9%
Opponent Steal 6.3% 8.9%
Odds Per Shot Taken MIZZ LIB
Shot Blocked 3.3% 9.8%
Offensive Rebound 22.7% 24.6%