NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring TXSO SMC
Points 54.4 78.2
Total Points   132.5
Points From 2-Pointers 28.4 40.1
Points From 3-Pointers 13.9 23.1
Points From Free Throws 12.0 15.0
Shooting TXSO SMC
Field Goals Made 18.8 27.7
Field Goals Attempted 54.4 57.7
Field Goal % 34.7% 48.1%
2 Pointers Made 14.2 20.0
2 Pointers Attempted 38.3 34.7
2 Point Shooting % 37.1% 57.7%
3 Pointers Made 4.6 7.7
3 Pointers Attempted 16.0 22.9
3 Point Shooting % 28.9% 33.6%
Free Throws Made 12.0 15.0
Free Throws Attempted 16.3 22.3
Free Throw % 73.6% 67.1%
Ball Control TXSO SMC
Rebounds 26.5 45.2
Rebounds - Defensive 20.2 31.2
Rebounds - Offensive 6.2 13.9
Turnovers 10.2 9.5
Blocked Shots 2.6 4.2
Steals 5.1 5.9
Fouls 15.8 14.3

Playing Style Advantage: St Marys

Expected Effect: +0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats TXSO SMC
Total Possessions 67.6
Effective Scoring Chances 63.6 72.0
% of Possessions with TXSO SMC
2 Point Attempt 50.8% 42.1%
3 Point Attempt 21.3% 27.8%
Player Fouled 21.2% 23.4%
Turnover 15.1% 14.1%
Opponent Steal 8.8% 7.6%
Odds Per Shot Taken TXSO SMC
Shot Blocked 7.4% 4.9%
Offensive Rebound 16.6% 40.8%