NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring TNST TNTC
Points 71.5 65.5
Total Points   137.0
Points From 2-Pointers 38.3 34.4
Points From 3-Pointers 19.9 16.9
Points From Free Throws 13.3 14.2
Shooting TNST TNTC
Field Goals Made 25.8 22.8
Field Goals Attempted 55.6 52.2
Field Goal % 46.4% 43.7%
2 Pointers Made 19.2 17.2
2 Pointers Attempted 35.4 34.9
2 Point Shooting % 54.1% 49.3%
3 Pointers Made 6.6 5.6
3 Pointers Attempted 20.2 17.3
3 Point Shooting % 32.9% 32.6%
Free Throws Made 13.3 14.2
Free Throws Attempted 17.4 20.4
Free Throw % 76.1% 69.5%
Ball Control TNST TNTC
Rebounds 34.3 30.4
Rebounds - Defensive 26.2 23.9
Rebounds - Offensive 8.1 6.5
Turnovers 11.6 12.1
Blocked Shots 3.7 2.7
Steals 6.5 5.4
Fouls 16.8 14.1

Playing Style Advantage: TN State

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats TNST TNTC
Total Possessions 69.9
Effective Scoring Chances 66.4 64.3
% of Possessions with TNST TNTC
2 Point Attempt 44.8% 44.8%
3 Point Attempt 25.5% 22.2%
Player Fouled 20.1% 24.0%
Turnover 16.6% 17.3%
Opponent Steal 7.7% 9.3%
Odds Per Shot Taken TNST TNTC
Shot Blocked 5.3% 6.7%
Offensive Rebound 25.2% 19.8%