NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring MEM TLSA
Points 81.3 71.7
Total Points   153.0
Points From 2-Pointers 38.5 30.7
Points From 3-Pointers 24.5 25.3
Points From Free Throws 18.3 15.7
Shooting MEM TLSA
Field Goals Made 27.4 23.8
Field Goals Attempted 59.9 56.7
Field Goal % 45.8% 41.9%
2 Pointers Made 19.3 15.3
2 Pointers Attempted 35.8 30.1
2 Point Shooting % 53.8% 50.9%
3 Pointers Made 8.2 8.4
3 Pointers Attempted 24.1 26.6
3 Point Shooting % 33.9% 31.7%
Free Throws Made 18.3 15.7
Free Throws Attempted 25.2 21.3
Free Throw % 72.7% 73.6%
Ball Control MEM TLSA
Rebounds 39.7 32.6
Rebounds - Defensive 27.4 24.0
Rebounds - Offensive 12.3 8.6
Turnovers 12.1 14.2
Blocked Shots 3.0 3.2
Steals 8.3 6.9
Fouls 16.6 16.9

Playing Style Advantage: Memphis

Expected Effect: +0.4 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MEM TLSA
Total Possessions 75.6
Effective Scoring Chances 75.8 70.1
% of Possessions with MEM TLSA
2 Point Attempt 40.1% 35.2%
3 Point Attempt 27.0% 31.2%
Player Fouled 22.3% 21.9%
Turnover 16.1% 18.7%
Opponent Steal 9.1% 11.0%
Odds Per Shot Taken MEM TLSA
Shot Blocked 5.7% 5.1%
Offensive Rebound 33.9% 23.9%