NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring AUB STJOE
Points 82.2 66.2
Total Points   148.4
Points From 2-Pointers 41.9 27.6
Points From 3-Pointers 24.4 22.3
Points From Free Throws 15.9 16.3
Shooting AUB STJOE
Field Goals Made 29.1 21.2
Field Goals Attempted 60.8 59.4
Field Goal % 47.8% 35.7%
2 Pointers Made 20.9 13.8
2 Pointers Attempted 37.5 35.4
2 Point Shooting % 55.9% 39.0%
3 Pointers Made 8.1 7.4
3 Pointers Attempted 23.4 24.0
3 Point Shooting % 34.8% 30.9%
Free Throws Made 15.9 16.3
Free Throws Attempted 21.2 22.6
Free Throw % 74.8% 71.9%
Ball Control AUB STJOE
Rebounds 41.0 34.4
Rebounds - Defensive 29.6 23.2
Rebounds - Offensive 11.5 11.2
Turnovers 9.8 11.4
Blocked Shots 7.7 2.9
Steals 7.0 6.4
Fouls 15.9 15.0

Playing Style Advantage: Auburn

Expected Effect: +0.4 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats AUB STJOE
Total Possessions 72.3
Effective Scoring Chances 74.0 72.1
% of Possessions with AUB STJOE
2 Point Attempt 44.1% 40.8%
3 Point Attempt 27.5% 27.8%
Player Fouled 20.8% 22.0%
Turnover 13.5% 15.8%
Opponent Steal 8.9% 9.7%
Odds Per Shot Taken AUB STJOE
Shot Blocked 5.1% 12.9%
Offensive Rebound 33.1% 27.4%