NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring TXSO ALST
Points 69.9 63.5
Total Points   133.4
Points From 2-Pointers 29.5 29.6
Points From 3-Pointers 24.1 19.6
Points From Free Throws 16.3 14.3
Shooting TXSO ALST
Field Goals Made 22.8 21.3
Field Goals Attempted 57.3 63.9
Field Goal % 39.8% 33.4%
2 Pointers Made 14.8 14.8
2 Pointers Attempted 31.7 38.1
2 Point Shooting % 46.5% 38.8%
3 Pointers Made 8.0 6.5
3 Pointers Attempted 25.6 25.8
3 Point Shooting % 31.4% 25.3%
Free Throws Made 16.3 14.3
Free Throws Attempted 22.1 19.7
Free Throw % 73.6% 72.4%
Ball Control TXSO ALST
Rebounds 43.0 39.6
Rebounds - Defensive 32.4 27.0
Rebounds - Offensive 10.5 12.7
Turnovers 12.2 9.4
Blocked Shots 4.5 4.3
Steals 5.1 6.8
Fouls 14.6 16.3

Playing Style Advantage: Alabama St

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats TXSO ALST
Total Possessions 72.5
Effective Scoring Chances 70.8 75.7
% of Possessions with TXSO ALST
2 Point Attempt 37.4% 43.8%
3 Point Attempt 30.2% 29.7%
Player Fouled 22.5% 20.2%
Turnover 16.8% 13.0%
Opponent Steal 9.3% 7.0%
Odds Per Shot Taken TXSO ALST
Shot Blocked 6.9% 8.1%
Offensive Rebound 28.0% 28.1%