NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring GRAM CONN
Points 50.3 84.9
Total Points   135.2
Points From 2-Pointers 27.3 42.3
Points From 3-Pointers 10.7 25.7
Points From Free Throws 12.3 16.9
Shooting GRAM CONN
Field Goals Made 17.2 29.8
Field Goals Attempted 54.7 57.3
Field Goal % 31.5% 51.9%
2 Pointers Made 13.6 21.2
2 Pointers Attempted 42.8 33.4
2 Point Shooting % 31.9% 63.4%
3 Pointers Made 3.6 8.6
3 Pointers Attempted 11.9 24.0
3 Point Shooting % 30.0% 35.8%
Free Throws Made 12.3 16.9
Free Throws Attempted 17.4 22.4
Free Throw % 70.7% 75.1%
Ball Control GRAM CONN
Rebounds 25.5 44.8
Rebounds - Defensive 17.4 31.4
Rebounds - Offensive 8.0 13.4
Turnovers 10.5 8.5
Blocked Shots 2.3 6.0
Steals 5.0 5.6
Fouls 14.8 12.9

Playing Style Advantage: Connecticut

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats GRAM CONN
Total Possessions 66.7
Effective Scoring Chances 64.3 71.6
% of Possessions with GRAM CONN
2 Point Attempt 55.4% 41.2%
3 Point Attempt 15.4% 29.6%
Player Fouled 19.3% 22.2%
Turnover 15.7% 12.7%
Opponent Steal 8.4% 7.5%
Odds Per Shot Taken GRAM CONN
Shot Blocked 10.6% 4.3%
Offensive Rebound 20.4% 43.4%