NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring PAC LMU
Points 64.8 81.0
Total Points   145.7
Points From 2-Pointers 35.8 40.4
Points From 3-Pointers 16.6 26.4
Points From Free Throws 12.4 14.2
Shooting PAC LMU
Field Goals Made 23.4 29.0
Field Goals Attempted 55.0 58.3
Field Goal % 42.5% 49.7%
2 Pointers Made 17.9 20.2
2 Pointers Attempted 37.8 34.3
2 Point Shooting % 47.3% 58.9%
3 Pointers Made 5.5 8.8
3 Pointers Attempted 17.3 24.0
3 Point Shooting % 32.0% 36.6%
Free Throws Made 12.4 14.2
Free Throws Attempted 19.1 19.2
Free Throw % 65.1% 73.7%
Ball Control PAC LMU
Rebounds 26.7 40.8
Rebounds - Defensive 20.8 29.4
Rebounds - Offensive 5.9 11.4
Turnovers 7.4 8.4
Blocked Shots 2.4 3.2
Steals 4.2 3.1
Fouls 13.8 16.0

Playing Style Advantage: Pacific

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats PAC LMU
Total Possessions 67.4
Effective Scoring Chances 65.9 70.4
% of Possessions with PAC LMU
2 Point Attempt 50.7% 43.0%
3 Point Attempt 23.2% 30.1%
Player Fouled 23.7% 20.5%
Turnover 10.9% 12.5%
Opponent Steal 4.7% 6.3%
Odds Per Shot Taken PAC LMU
Shot Blocked 5.5% 4.5%
Offensive Rebound 16.7% 35.4%