NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring TXSO ARK
Points 65.8 80.5
Total Points   146.3
Points From 2-Pointers 32.6 38.6
Points From 3-Pointers 17.3 17.0
Points From Free Throws 15.9 24.9
Shooting TXSO ARK
Field Goals Made 22.1 25.0
Field Goals Attempted 61.4 52.8
Field Goal % 36.0% 47.3%
2 Pointers Made 16.3 19.3
2 Pointers Attempted 41.5 34.3
2 Point Shooting % 39.3% 56.2%
3 Pointers Made 5.8 5.7
3 Pointers Attempted 19.8 18.4
3 Point Shooting % 29.0% 30.8%
Free Throws Made 15.9 24.9
Free Throws Attempted 21.6 32.5
Free Throw % 73.6% 76.5%
Ball Control TXSO ARK
Rebounds 33.9 40.3
Rebounds - Defensive 23.6 31.6
Rebounds - Offensive 10.3 8.7
Turnovers 11.1 10.8
Blocked Shots 2.5 5.4
Steals 5.7 5.7
Fouls 21.3 16.0

Playing Style Advantage: Arkansas

Expected Effect: +0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats TXSO ARK
Total Possessions 74.7
Effective Scoring Chances 73.9 72.5
% of Possessions with TXSO ARK
2 Point Attempt 47.7% 40.7%
3 Point Attempt 22.8% 21.8%
Player Fouled 21.4% 28.5%
Turnover 14.8% 14.5%
Opponent Steal 7.6% 7.6%
Odds Per Shot Taken TXSO ARK
Shot Blocked 10.3% 4.2%
Offensive Rebound 24.5% 26.8%