NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring LSU ARK
Points 77.5 77.1
Total Points   154.6
Points From 2-Pointers 36.8 38.9
Points From 3-Pointers 20.4 17.9
Points From Free Throws 20.3 20.4
Shooting LSU ARK
Field Goals Made 25.2 25.4
Field Goals Attempted 58.3 56.0
Field Goal % 43.2% 45.3%
2 Pointers Made 18.4 19.4
2 Pointers Attempted 39.3 36.9
2 Point Shooting % 46.8% 52.7%
3 Pointers Made 6.8 6.0
3 Pointers Attempted 19.0 19.1
3 Point Shooting % 35.9% 31.2%
Free Throws Made 20.3 20.4
Free Throws Attempted 27.6 26.6
Free Throw % 73.3% 76.5%
Ball Control LSU ARK
Rebounds 36.5 34.5
Rebounds - Defensive 26.2 26.6
Rebounds - Offensive 10.3 7.9
Turnovers 11.7 11.7
Blocked Shots 2.9 5.6
Steals 6.8 7.2
Fouls 18.3 17.2

Playing Style Advantage: Arkansas

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats LSU ARK
Total Possessions 75.8
Effective Scoring Chances 74.4 72.1
% of Possessions with LSU ARK
2 Point Attempt 44.5% 43.5%
3 Point Attempt 21.5% 22.5%
Player Fouled 22.7% 24.2%
Turnover 15.4% 15.4%
Opponent Steal 9.4% 9.0%
Odds Per Shot Taken LSU ARK
Shot Blocked 10.1% 5.1%
Offensive Rebound 27.9% 23.3%