NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring TNST SEMO
Points 73.8 65.7
Total Points   139.5
Points From 2-Pointers 39.3 35.9
Points From 3-Pointers 13.1 15.1
Points From Free Throws 21.4 14.7
Shooting TNST SEMO
Field Goals Made 24.0 23.0
Field Goals Attempted 49.9 57.4
Field Goal % 48.1% 40.0%
2 Pointers Made 19.6 17.9
2 Pointers Attempted 35.1 39.6
2 Point Shooting % 56.0% 45.2%
3 Pointers Made 4.4 5.0
3 Pointers Attempted 14.8 17.8
3 Point Shooting % 29.5% 28.3%
Free Throws Made 21.4 14.7
Free Throws Attempted 28.1 20.9
Free Throw % 76.1% 70.6%
Ball Control TNST SEMO
Rebounds 35.7 31.9
Rebounds - Defensive 27.4 21.5
Rebounds - Offensive 8.3 10.4
Turnovers 12.7 11.6
Blocked Shots 3.3 2.9
Steals 6.1 5.7
Fouls 17.1 19.5

Playing Style Advantage: TN State

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats TNST SEMO
Total Possessions 71.6
Effective Scoring Chances 67.1 70.4
% of Possessions with TNST SEMO
2 Point Attempt 43.3% 47.6%
3 Point Attempt 18.3% 21.3%
Player Fouled 27.3% 23.8%
Turnover 17.8% 16.2%
Opponent Steal 7.9% 8.6%
Odds Per Shot Taken TNST SEMO
Shot Blocked 5.2% 6.7%
Offensive Rebound 27.9% 27.5%