NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring MIZZ AUB
Points 64.3 84.2
Total Points   148.5
Points From 2-Pointers 29.3 36.9
Points From 3-Pointers 15.6 25.0
Points From Free Throws 19.4 22.3
Shooting MIZZ AUB
Field Goals Made 19.8 26.8
Field Goals Attempted 55.6 55.6
Field Goal % 35.7% 48.2%
2 Pointers Made 14.6 18.4
2 Pointers Attempted 37.1 33.4
2 Point Shooting % 39.5% 55.2%
3 Pointers Made 5.2 8.3
3 Pointers Attempted 18.6 22.2
3 Point Shooting % 28.0% 37.5%
Free Throws Made 19.4 22.3
Free Throws Attempted 24.6 29.9
Free Throw % 78.9% 74.8%
Ball Control MIZZ AUB
Rebounds 30.3 40.9
Rebounds - Defensive 20.5 28.3
Rebounds - Offensive 9.8 12.6
Turnovers 11.6 10.5
Blocked Shots 3.6 5.2
Steals 6.7 6.5
Fouls 19.6 17.8

Playing Style Advantage: Missouri

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MIZZ AUB
Total Possessions 71.9
Effective Scoring Chances 70.1 74.0
% of Possessions with MIZZ AUB
2 Point Attempt 44.2% 38.8%
3 Point Attempt 22.1% 25.9%
Player Fouled 24.7% 27.2%
Turnover 16.2% 14.6%
Opponent Steal 9.1% 9.4%
Odds Per Shot Taken MIZZ AUB
Shot Blocked 9.5% 6.7%
Offensive Rebound 25.8% 38.1%