NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring TNST UALR
Points 67.5 76.0
Total Points   143.5
Points From 2-Pointers 30.4 41.9
Points From 3-Pointers 19.5 16.8
Points From Free Throws 17.7 17.3
Shooting TNST UALR
Field Goals Made 21.7 26.5
Field Goals Attempted 54.3 56.3
Field Goal % 39.9% 47.1%
2 Pointers Made 15.2 20.9
2 Pointers Attempted 33.7 39.8
2 Point Shooting % 45.0% 52.6%
3 Pointers Made 6.5 5.6
3 Pointers Attempted 20.6 16.5
3 Point Shooting % 31.6% 33.8%
Free Throws Made 17.7 17.3
Free Throws Attempted 23.2 23.7
Free Throw % 76.1% 73.1%
Ball Control TNST UALR
Rebounds 31.1 37.6
Rebounds - Defensive 21.9 26.1
Rebounds - Offensive 9.2 11.5
Turnovers 13.1 12.1
Blocked Shots 3.0 5.4
Steals 5.6 6.1
Fouls 17.0 16.2

Playing Style Advantage: AR Lit Rock

Expected Effect: +0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats TNST UALR
Total Possessions 72.0
Effective Scoring Chances 68.0 71.4
% of Possessions with TNST UALR
2 Point Attempt 40.5% 47.0%
3 Point Attempt 24.7% 19.5%
Player Fouled 22.4% 23.7%
Turnover 18.2% 16.8%
Opponent Steal 8.4% 7.7%
Odds Per Shot Taken TNST UALR
Shot Blocked 9.7% 5.7%
Offensive Rebound 26.0% 34.4%