NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring AUB TENN
Points 71.8 71.8
Total Points   143.6
Points From 2-Pointers 30.7 31.3
Points From 3-Pointers 23.4 19.3
Points From Free Throws 17.7 21.2
Shooting AUB TENN
Field Goals Made 23.2 22.1
Field Goals Attempted 57.9 60.2
Field Goal % 40.0% 36.7%
2 Pointers Made 15.4 15.6
2 Pointers Attempted 34.0 38.9
2 Point Shooting % 45.2% 40.2%
3 Pointers Made 7.8 6.4
3 Pointers Attempted 23.9 21.3
3 Point Shooting % 32.7% 30.2%
Free Throws Made 17.7 21.2
Free Throws Attempted 23.6 28.1
Free Throw % 74.8% 75.5%
Ball Control AUB TENN
Rebounds 38.0 41.5
Rebounds - Defensive 27.5 27.3
Rebounds - Offensive 10.5 14.2
Turnovers 11.4 9.9
Blocked Shots 3.9 3.8
Steals 6.1 7.3
Fouls 18.0 16.6

Playing Style Advantage: Tennessee

Expected Effect: +0.4 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats AUB TENN
Total Possessions 73.1
Effective Scoring Chances 72.3 77.5
% of Possessions with AUB TENN
2 Point Attempt 39.9% 43.7%
3 Point Attempt 28.1% 24.0%
Player Fouled 22.6% 24.6%
Turnover 15.5% 13.5%
Opponent Steal 10.0% 8.4%
Odds Per Shot Taken AUB TENN
Shot Blocked 6.5% 6.9%
Offensive Rebound 27.8% 34.1%