NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring GRAM ARIZ
Points 59.0 88.8
Total Points   147.7
Points From 2-Pointers 32.9 47.5
Points From 3-Pointers 15.0 22.3
Points From Free Throws 11.0 19.0
Shooting GRAM ARIZ
Field Goals Made 21.5 31.2
Field Goals Attempted 58.0 60.0
Field Goal % 37.0% 52.0%
2 Pointers Made 16.5 23.7
2 Pointers Attempted 42.7 39.7
2 Point Shooting % 38.5% 59.7%
3 Pointers Made 5.0 7.4
3 Pointers Attempted 15.3 20.3
3 Point Shooting % 32.9% 36.8%
Free Throws Made 11.0 19.0
Free Throws Attempted 15.6 26.7
Free Throw % 70.7% 71.0%
Ball Control GRAM ARIZ
Rebounds 26.2 45.7
Rebounds - Defensive 19.0 31.3
Rebounds - Offensive 7.3 14.4
Turnovers 13.1 10.4
Blocked Shots 2.8 4.3
Steals 6.3 7.9
Fouls 16.5 12.8

Playing Style Advantage: Arizona

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats GRAM ARIZ
Total Possessions 73.0
Effective Scoring Chances 67.1 77.0
% of Possessions with GRAM ARIZ
2 Point Attempt 52.1% 44.9%
3 Point Attempt 18.6% 22.9%
Player Fouled 17.6% 22.6%
Turnover 18.0% 14.3%
Opponent Steal 10.9% 8.6%
Odds Per Shot Taken GRAM ARIZ
Shot Blocked 7.3% 4.9%
Offensive Rebound 18.8% 43.1%