NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring CSF UCD
Points 62.1 67.6
Total Points   129.7
Points From 2-Pointers 30.5 32.0
Points From 3-Pointers 15.8 19.3
Points From Free Throws 15.8 16.3
Shooting CSF UCD
Field Goals Made 20.5 22.4
Field Goals Attempted 49.8 52.1
Field Goal % 41.2% 43.1%
2 Pointers Made 15.2 16.0
2 Pointers Attempted 32.6 31.1
2 Point Shooting % 46.8% 51.5%
3 Pointers Made 5.3 6.4
3 Pointers Attempted 17.2 21.0
3 Point Shooting % 30.6% 30.7%
Free Throws Made 15.8 16.3
Free Throws Attempted 22.2 21.4
Free Throw % 71.1% 76.1%
Ball Control CSF UCD
Rebounds 31.6 33.7
Rebounds - Defensive 23.8 25.1
Rebounds - Offensive 7.8 8.6
Turnovers 13.2 12.1
Blocked Shots 2.7 2.9
Steals 6.6 6.9
Fouls 17.1 17.5

Playing Style Advantage: UC Davis

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats CSF UCD
Total Possessions 68.9
Effective Scoring Chances 63.6 65.4
% of Possessions with CSF UCD
2 Point Attempt 41.8% 39.6%
3 Point Attempt 22.1% 26.7%
Player Fouled 25.5% 24.8%
Turnover 19.1% 17.6%
Opponent Steal 9.9% 9.7%
Odds Per Shot Taken CSF UCD
Shot Blocked 5.7% 5.5%
Offensive Rebound 23.8% 26.6%