NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring DETU NKU
Points 67.8 79.8
Total Points   147.5
Points From 2-Pointers 36.5 43.9
Points From 3-Pointers 19.1 20.8
Points From Free Throws 12.1 15.0
Shooting DETU NKU
Field Goals Made 24.6 28.9
Field Goals Attempted 55.5 57.9
Field Goal % 44.4% 49.9%
2 Pointers Made 18.3 22.0
2 Pointers Attempted 31.9 37.9
2 Point Shooting % 57.3% 57.9%
3 Pointers Made 6.4 6.9
3 Pointers Attempted 23.6 20.0
3 Point Shooting % 27.1% 34.6%
Free Throws Made 12.1 15.0
Free Throws Attempted 16.3 20.6
Free Throw % 74.1% 73.1%
Ball Control DETU NKU
Rebounds 30.3 35.1
Rebounds - Defensive 21.7 24.6
Rebounds - Offensive 8.6 10.5
Turnovers 14.1 11.2
Blocked Shots 2.5 2.0
Steals 6.5 7.0
Fouls 16.0 14.4

Playing Style Advantage: N Kentucky

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats DETU NKU
Total Possessions 71.7
Effective Scoring Chances 66.2 71.0
% of Possessions with DETU NKU
2 Point Attempt 39.3% 45.6%
3 Point Attempt 29.1% 24.0%
Player Fouled 20.1% 22.4%
Turnover 19.6% 15.6%
Opponent Steal 9.7% 9.0%
Odds Per Shot Taken DETU NKU
Shot Blocked 3.5% 4.5%
Offensive Rebound 26.0% 32.6%