NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring USD GONZ
Points 65.8 89.6
Total Points   155.4
Points From 2-Pointers 32.1 51.6
Points From 3-Pointers 21.8 20.4
Points From Free Throws 12.0 17.6
Shooting USD GONZ
Field Goals Made 23.3 32.6
Field Goals Attempted 61.0 59.5
Field Goal % 38.2% 54.8%
2 Pointers Made 16.0 25.8
2 Pointers Attempted 40.3 40.7
2 Point Shooting % 39.8% 63.4%
3 Pointers Made 7.3 6.8
3 Pointers Attempted 20.7 18.8
3 Point Shooting % 35.0% 36.2%
Free Throws Made 12.0 17.6
Free Throws Attempted 16.7 23.9
Free Throw % 72.1% 73.6%
Ball Control USD GONZ
Rebounds 29.6 40.8
Rebounds - Defensive 19.5 29.8
Rebounds - Offensive 10.1 11.1
Turnovers 11.6 9.4
Blocked Shots 2.7 4.4
Steals 5.4 7.3
Fouls 16.6 13.3

Playing Style Advantage: Gonzaga

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats USD GONZ
Total Possessions 72.6
Effective Scoring Chances 71.1 74.2
% of Possessions with USD GONZ
2 Point Attempt 47.7% 48.0%
3 Point Attempt 24.5% 22.2%
Player Fouled 18.4% 22.9%
Turnover 16.0% 13.0%
Opponent Steal 10.0% 7.4%
Odds Per Shot Taken USD GONZ
Shot Blocked 7.5% 4.5%
Offensive Rebound 25.4% 36.2%