NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring USD FRES
Points 72.9 72.7
Total Points   145.6
Points From 2-Pointers 38.2 35.7
Points From 3-Pointers 22.4 22.1
Points From Free Throws 12.4 14.8
Shooting USD FRES
Field Goals Made 26.5 25.2
Field Goals Attempted 58.7 54.2
Field Goal % 45.2% 46.5%
2 Pointers Made 19.1 17.9
2 Pointers Attempted 38.3 32.1
2 Point Shooting % 49.8% 55.7%
3 Pointers Made 7.5 7.4
3 Pointers Attempted 20.4 22.1
3 Point Shooting % 36.5% 33.3%
Free Throws Made 12.4 14.8
Free Throws Attempted 17.2 21.3
Free Throw % 72.1% 69.6%
Ball Control USD FRES
Rebounds 34.4 32.7
Rebounds - Defensive 24.4 24.8
Rebounds - Offensive 10.0 7.9
Turnovers 11.4 12.4
Blocked Shots 4.9 2.5
Steals 6.3 6.9
Fouls 16.5 13.5

Playing Style Advantage: San Diego

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats USD FRES
Total Possessions 71.1
Effective Scoring Chances 69.7 66.7
% of Possessions with USD FRES
2 Point Attempt 46.6% 39.6%
3 Point Attempt 24.9% 27.3%
Player Fouled 19.0% 23.2%
Turnover 16.0% 17.4%
Opponent Steal 9.6% 8.9%
Odds Per Shot Taken USD FRES
Shot Blocked 4.6% 8.4%
Offensive Rebound 28.8% 24.6%