NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring USD BYU
Points 66.4 86.8
Total Points   153.2
Points From 2-Pointers 33.9 36.1
Points From 3-Pointers 18.5 34.2
Points From Free Throws 13.9 16.5
Shooting USD BYU
Field Goals Made 23.1 29.5
Field Goals Attempted 57.5 61.8
Field Goal % 40.2% 47.6%
2 Pointers Made 17.0 18.1
2 Pointers Attempted 39.1 29.4
2 Point Shooting % 43.4% 61.4%
3 Pointers Made 6.2 11.4
3 Pointers Attempted 18.5 32.4
3 Point Shooting % 33.5% 35.2%
Free Throws Made 13.9 16.5
Free Throws Attempted 19.3 22.7
Free Throw % 72.1% 72.5%
Ball Control USD BYU
Rebounds 31.1 42.0
Rebounds - Defensive 23.8 29.9
Rebounds - Offensive 7.3 12.2
Turnovers 12.0 9.7
Blocked Shots 2.5 3.6
Steals 5.6 6.5
Fouls 16.2 15.4

Playing Style Advantage: San Diego

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats USD BYU
Total Possessions 73.7
Effective Scoring Chances 69.0 76.1
% of Possessions with USD BYU
2 Point Attempt 47.4% 33.9%
3 Point Attempt 22.4% 37.3%
Player Fouled 20.9% 21.9%
Turnover 16.3% 13.2%
Opponent Steal 8.9% 7.7%
Odds Per Shot Taken USD BYU
Shot Blocked 5.9% 4.4%
Offensive Rebound 19.7% 33.8%