NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring USD LMU
Points 71.8 74.5
Total Points   146.3
Points From 2-Pointers 39.3 35.0
Points From 3-Pointers 19.3 24.3
Points From Free Throws 13.2 15.1
Shooting USD LMU
Field Goals Made 26.1 25.6
Field Goals Attempted 59.7 57.7
Field Goal % 43.7% 44.4%
2 Pointers Made 19.6 17.5
2 Pointers Attempted 41.5 34.3
2 Point Shooting % 47.3% 51.0%
3 Pointers Made 6.4 8.1
3 Pointers Attempted 18.2 23.4
3 Point Shooting % 35.5% 34.6%
Free Throws Made 13.2 15.1
Free Throws Attempted 18.3 20.5
Free Throw % 72.1% 73.7%
Ball Control USD LMU
Rebounds 33.2 37.9
Rebounds - Defensive 23.9 27.1
Rebounds - Offensive 9.2 10.8
Turnovers 8.3 10.5
Blocked Shots 4.5 3.1
Steals 5.7 3.8
Fouls 15.3 13.9

Playing Style Advantage: San Diego

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats USD LMU
Total Possessions 69.7
Effective Scoring Chances 70.6 70.1
% of Possessions with USD LMU
2 Point Attempt 51.8% 41.7%
3 Point Attempt 22.6% 28.4%
Player Fouled 19.9% 22.0%
Turnover 11.9% 15.0%
Opponent Steal 5.4% 8.2%
Odds Per Shot Taken USD LMU
Shot Blocked 5.5% 7.6%
Offensive Rebound 25.4% 31.2%