NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring USD PAC
Points 80.7 66.7
Total Points   147.4
Points From 2-Pointers 40.3 31.3
Points From 3-Pointers 23.3 18.1
Points From Free Throws 17.2 17.3
Shooting USD PAC
Field Goals Made 27.9 21.7
Field Goals Attempted 57.3 51.6
Field Goal % 48.7% 42.0%
2 Pointers Made 20.2 15.6
2 Pointers Attempted 36.0 32.1
2 Point Shooting % 56.0% 48.6%
3 Pointers Made 7.8 6.0
3 Pointers Attempted 21.3 19.4
3 Point Shooting % 36.4% 31.0%
Free Throws Made 17.2 17.3
Free Throws Attempted 23.8 26.6
Free Throw % 72.1% 65.1%
Ball Control USD PAC
Rebounds 39.3 29.1
Rebounds - Defensive 28.5 22.5
Rebounds - Offensive 10.8 6.5
Turnovers 11.2 12.3
Blocked Shots 4.3 2.2
Steals 6.8 6.1
Fouls 19.6 15.4

Playing Style Advantage: San Diego

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats USD PAC
Total Possessions 72.8
Effective Scoring Chances 72.4 67.1
% of Possessions with USD PAC
2 Point Attempt 42.6% 39.6%
3 Point Attempt 25.2% 24.0%
Player Fouled 21.1% 26.9%
Turnover 15.3% 16.9%
Opponent Steal 8.4% 9.4%
Odds Per Shot Taken USD PAC
Shot Blocked 4.4% 7.6%
Offensive Rebound 32.3% 18.7%