NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring CWM FAIR
Points 67.9 77.4
Total Points   145.3
Points From 2-Pointers 31.8 37.9
Points From 3-Pointers 25.7 26.4
Points From Free Throws 10.4 13.1
Shooting CWM FAIR
Field Goals Made 24.5 27.8
Field Goals Attempted 56.0 57.7
Field Goal % 43.7% 48.1%
2 Pointers Made 15.9 19.0
2 Pointers Attempted 28.5 33.7
2 Point Shooting % 55.8% 56.3%
3 Pointers Made 8.6 8.8
3 Pointers Attempted 27.6 24.0
3 Point Shooting % 31.1% 36.6%
Free Throws Made 10.4 13.1
Free Throws Attempted 15.4 17.7
Free Throw % 67.7% 74.0%
Ball Control CWM FAIR
Rebounds 33.8 33.2
Rebounds - Defensive 24.2 24.7
Rebounds - Offensive 9.6 8.4
Turnovers 11.5 7.6
Blocked Shots 1.5 2.5
Steals 3.7 7.3
Fouls 13.6 12.8

Playing Style Advantage: Wm & Mary

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats CWM FAIR
Total Possessions 67.9
Effective Scoring Chances 66.0 68.7
% of Possessions with CWM FAIR
2 Point Attempt 36.3% 43.8%
3 Point Attempt 35.1% 31.2%
Player Fouled 18.8% 20.1%
Turnover 16.9% 11.3%
Opponent Steal 10.8% 5.5%
Odds Per Shot Taken CWM FAIR
Shot Blocked 4.4% 2.7%
Offensive Rebound 27.9% 25.8%