NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring CWM NCST
Points 59.8 82.9
Total Points   142.7
Points From 2-Pointers 25.0 46.3
Points From 3-Pointers 23.3 19.5
Points From Free Throws 11.5 17.1
Shooting CWM NCST
Field Goals Made 20.3 29.7
Field Goals Attempted 56.7 56.5
Field Goal % 35.7% 52.5%
2 Pointers Made 12.5 23.2
2 Pointers Attempted 29.7 39.0
2 Point Shooting % 42.1% 59.3%
3 Pointers Made 7.8 6.5
3 Pointers Attempted 27.1 17.4
3 Point Shooting % 28.8% 37.3%
Free Throws Made 11.5 17.1
Free Throws Attempted 16.9 23.5
Free Throw % 67.7% 72.6%
Ball Control CWM NCST
Rebounds 30.9 38.7
Rebounds - Defensive 21.6 29.6
Rebounds - Offensive 9.3 9.1
Turnovers 11.2 6.8
Blocked Shots 1.4 5.2
Steals 3.2 6.7
Fouls 15.8 13.5

Playing Style Advantage: Wm & Mary

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats CWM NCST
Total Possessions 68.5
Effective Scoring Chances 66.6 70.8
% of Possessions with CWM NCST
2 Point Attempt 37.1% 49.9%
3 Point Attempt 33.9% 22.3%
Player Fouled 19.8% 23.1%
Turnover 16.4% 9.9%
Opponent Steal 9.7% 4.6%
Odds Per Shot Taken CWM NCST
Shot Blocked 9.2% 2.5%
Offensive Rebound 23.9% 29.7%