NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring UCSD UCSB
Points 76.8 73.5
Total Points   150.3
Points From 2-Pointers 38.5 41.9
Points From 3-Pointers 24.8 17.8
Points From Free Throws 13.5 13.8
Shooting UCSD UCSB
Field Goals Made 27.5 26.9
Field Goals Attempted 59.5 53.4
Field Goal % 46.2% 50.3%
2 Pointers Made 19.2 21.0
2 Pointers Attempted 35.6 36.9
2 Point Shooting % 54.0% 56.9%
3 Pointers Made 8.3 5.9
3 Pointers Attempted 23.9 16.6
3 Point Shooting % 34.6% 35.8%
Free Throws Made 13.5 13.8
Free Throws Attempted 18.2 18.4
Free Throw % 74.1% 75.0%
Ball Control UCSD UCSB
Rebounds 31.2 32.5
Rebounds - Defensive 23.1 26.4
Rebounds - Offensive 8.1 6.1
Turnovers 7.3 10.9
Blocked Shots 2.4 2.9
Steals 5.9 3.5
Fouls 15.3 15.3

Playing Style Advantage: UCSB

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats UCSD UCSB
Total Possessions 69.4
Effective Scoring Chances 70.2 64.5
% of Possessions with UCSD UCSB
2 Point Attempt 45.3% 48.3%
3 Point Attempt 30.4% 21.7%
Player Fouled 22.1% 22.0%
Turnover 10.6% 15.7%
Opponent Steal 5.1% 8.5%
Odds Per Shot Taken UCSD UCSB
Shot Blocked 5.5% 4.0%
Offensive Rebound 23.5% 20.8%