NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring UCSD USM
Points 74.4 69.4
Total Points   143.9
Points From 2-Pointers 34.5 36.3
Points From 3-Pointers 25.8 20.4
Points From Free Throws 14.1 12.8
Shooting UCSD USM
Field Goals Made 25.8 24.9
Field Goals Attempted 60.2 56.0
Field Goal % 42.9% 44.5%
2 Pointers Made 17.2 18.1
2 Pointers Attempted 36.1 37.1
2 Point Shooting % 47.7% 49.0%
3 Pointers Made 8.6 6.8
3 Pointers Attempted 24.0 19.0
3 Point Shooting % 35.8% 35.8%
Free Throws Made 14.1 12.8
Free Throws Attempted 19.1 18.1
Free Throw % 74.1% 70.5%
Ball Control UCSD USM
Rebounds 36.3 34.5
Rebounds - Defensive 26.4 26.7
Rebounds - Offensive 9.9 7.8
Turnovers 8.7 10.3
Blocked Shots 2.2 5.2
Steals 6.6 4.6
Fouls 14.4 15.4

Playing Style Advantage: UCSD

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats UCSD USM
Total Possessions 69.8
Effective Scoring Chances 71.0 67.2
% of Possessions with UCSD USM
2 Point Attempt 44.2% 47.2%
3 Point Attempt 29.4% 24.2%
Player Fouled 22.1% 20.6%
Turnover 12.5% 14.8%
Opponent Steal 6.5% 9.5%
Odds Per Shot Taken UCSD USM
Shot Blocked 9.3% 3.7%
Offensive Rebound 27.0% 22.8%