NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring UCSD HAW
Points 72.5 73.5
Total Points   146.0
Points From 2-Pointers 41.0 35.9
Points From 3-Pointers 18.0 24.5
Points From Free Throws 13.5 13.2
Shooting UCSD HAW
Field Goals Made 26.5 26.1
Field Goals Attempted 57.7 53.4
Field Goal % 46.0% 48.8%
2 Pointers Made 20.5 17.9
2 Pointers Attempted 39.6 31.1
2 Point Shooting % 51.8% 57.7%
3 Pointers Made 6.0 8.2
3 Pointers Attempted 18.1 22.3
3 Point Shooting % 33.2% 36.5%
Free Throws Made 13.5 13.2
Free Throws Attempted 18.2 18.2
Free Throw % 74.1% 72.5%
Ball Control UCSD HAW
Rebounds 31.1 32.8
Rebounds - Defensive 24.0 26.6
Rebounds - Offensive 7.2 6.2
Turnovers 7.8 10.7
Blocked Shots 2.1 2.6
Steals 5.4 2.9
Fouls 15.8 15.8

Playing Style Advantage: Hawaii

Expected Effect: +0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats UCSD HAW
Total Possessions 69.0
Effective Scoring Chances 68.4 64.5
% of Possessions with UCSD HAW
2 Point Attempt 51.3% 40.9%
3 Point Attempt 23.4% 29.4%
Player Fouled 22.9% 23.0%
Turnover 11.3% 15.5%
Opponent Steal 4.2% 7.8%
Odds Per Shot Taken UCSD HAW
Shot Blocked 4.8% 3.6%
Offensive Rebound 21.2% 20.6%