NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring TROY SDSU
Points 65.9 77.9
Total Points   143.8
Points From 2-Pointers 25.1 37.4
Points From 3-Pointers 23.9 20.6
Points From Free Throws 16.8 19.9
Shooting TROY SDSU
Field Goals Made 20.5 25.6
Field Goals Attempted 55.9 53.9
Field Goal % 36.8% 47.4%
2 Pointers Made 12.6 18.7
2 Pointers Attempted 31.2 33.5
2 Point Shooting % 40.3% 55.8%
3 Pointers Made 8.0 6.9
3 Pointers Attempted 24.7 20.4
3 Point Shooting % 32.3% 33.7%
Free Throws Made 16.8 19.9
Free Throws Attempted 22.9 27.0
Free Throw % 73.4% 73.7%
Ball Control TROY SDSU
Rebounds 32.6 38.4
Rebounds - Defensive 20.9 26.8
Rebounds - Offensive 11.7 11.6
Turnovers 13.4 12.4
Blocked Shots 2.3 4.5
Steals 8.6 8.7
Fouls 19.2 16.1

Playing Style Advantage: Troy

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats TROY SDSU
Total Possessions 72.0
Effective Scoring Chances 70.3 71.2
% of Possessions with TROY SDSU
2 Point Attempt 36.5% 39.6%
3 Point Attempt 28.9% 24.2%
Player Fouled 22.4% 26.7%
Turnover 18.6% 17.3%
Opponent Steal 12.1% 11.9%
Odds Per Shot Taken TROY SDSU
Shot Blocked 8.4% 4.3%
Offensive Rebound 30.3% 35.8%