NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring TROY CCU
Points 82.5 71.2
Total Points   153.7
Points From 2-Pointers 31.6 37.6
Points From 3-Pointers 32.3 18.3
Points From Free Throws 18.6 15.3
Shooting TROY CCU
Field Goals Made 26.6 24.9
Field Goals Attempted 62.9 55.0
Field Goal % 42.3% 45.3%
2 Pointers Made 15.8 18.8
2 Pointers Attempted 31.4 37.1
2 Point Shooting % 50.4% 50.6%
3 Pointers Made 10.8 6.1
3 Pointers Attempted 31.5 17.9
3 Point Shooting % 34.2% 34.2%
Free Throws Made 18.6 15.3
Free Throws Attempted 25.4 22.0
Free Throw % 73.4% 69.4%
Ball Control TROY CCU
Rebounds 37.6 36.4
Rebounds - Defensive 24.6 27.2
Rebounds - Offensive 13.0 9.2
Turnovers 9.5 15.6
Blocked Shots 3.6 2.5
Steals 12.0 5.9
Fouls 16.3 15.5

Playing Style Advantage: Troy

Expected Effect: +0.6 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats TROY CCU
Total Possessions 75.2
Effective Scoring Chances 78.7 68.9
% of Possessions with TROY CCU
2 Point Attempt 35.2% 43.2%
3 Point Attempt 35.3% 20.8%
Player Fouled 20.6% 21.7%
Turnover 12.6% 20.7%
Opponent Steal 7.9% 16.0%
Odds Per Shot Taken TROY CCU
Shot Blocked 4.6% 5.8%
Offensive Rebound 32.3% 27.3%